How high does this bull market actually go?
Two completed secular bull markets in S&P history say the current one isn't done — averaging out their duration and gain points to a top somewhere between 10,340 and 11,750.
Snapshot as of August 8, 2026
1929 Crash
The 1929 crash — the top of the prior secular bull, wiping out roughly 86% of value into the 1932 low.
Secular bear: 1937–1950
A grinding secular bear spanning the Depression aftermath, WWII, and its recovery.
Secular Bull: 1950–1966
16 years, +293% (3.93x).
1957: Cyclical bear
Seven years into the 1950–66 bull, a sharp cyclical drawdown interrupted — but did not end — the secular trend.
Secular bear: 1966–1980
Stagflation-era secular bear — 14 years of going nowhere in nominal terms.
Secular Bull: 1980–2000
20 years, +1,004% (11.04x).
1987: Cyclical bear
Seven years into the 1980–2000 bull, Black Monday hit — again a cyclical gut-check, not a secular top.
Secular bear: 2000–2013
The dot-com bust and 2008 financial crisis both landed inside this 13-year secular bear.
Secular Bull: 2013–present
Breakout at $1,569.19 in March 2013. As of Aug 8, 2026, the S&P sits at $7,757.64.
2020: Cyclical bear
Seven years into the current bull, COVID delivered the pattern’s expected cyclical gut-check — already behind us.
Projected secular top
Applying the 18-year average duration and 6.59x–7.49x average gain to the 2013 breakout: a projected top of ~10,340 to ~11,750, landing 2029–2033.
The methodology
- 1950→1966: 16 years, +293% (3.93x)
- 1980→2000: 20 years, +1,004% (11.04x)
- Average duration: 18 years
- Average gain: 6.59x (geometric) to 7.49x (arithmetic)
Applied to the 2013 breakout price ($1,569) and today's price: a projected next secular top of ~10,340 to ~11,750 on the S&P, landing somewhere between 2029 and 2033.
The year-7 pattern
Every secular bull on record has taken a serious hit around year seven: 1957 (seven years into 1950–66), 1987 (seven years into 1980–2000), and 2020/COVID (seven years into 2013–present) all line up. It didn't end the bull either time — it interrupted it, then the trend resumed. History says the sharpest gut-check for this cycle has likely already happened.
Not financial advice — just the historical pattern.